President Biden Embarks on a Farewell Tour in Latin America Amid Changing Global Dynamics
As President Joe Biden takes what may be his last international tour, he sets his sights on Latin America, participating in two pivotal summits: the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru and the G-20 summit in Brazil. However, political analysts suggest that Biden’s capacity to effectuate meaningful change during his engagements is greatly hampered by the looming shift in U.S. leadership.
Political Landscape: A Transition Looms
Ariel González Levaggi, a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that the Biden administration’s influence is waning, particularly in the face of former President Donald Trump’s anticipated return. “Much of what Biden will highlight at these summits will not resonate with the incoming Trump administration,” Levaggi pointed out in an interview with Fox News Digital. He elaborated that if Trump wins, the G-20’s political relevance could decline, curbing Biden’s potential to secure binding commitments or negotiate effectively.
Summit Agenda and Key Meetings
Biden’s Latin American tour kicked off in Lima, Peru, at the APEC summit, where discussions emphasize enhancing ties within the Indo-Pacific region. His journey will continue in Brazil for the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, where he will engage with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
A significant highlight of the APEC summit is Biden’s anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This encounter underscores the shifting dynamics in Latin America, where China’s economic footprint is growing, especially in Peru—home to the recently inaugurated Chancay megaport, a substantial billion venture financed by China. The investment signifies China’s escalating influence in the region, where it emerged as South America’s leading trading partner, with trade figures ballooning from billion in 2000 to a staggering 5 billion in 2020. Experts predict this figure could more than double by 2035.
The Shadow of Trump’s Return
Biden’s attendance at these summits cannot be viewed in isolation. It unfolds in the context of Trump’s electoral victory, heralding a potential shift in U.S. foreign policy frameworks. While substantive discussions are expected at APEC and the G-20—addressing matters of international trade, security, and coalitions—experts caution against anticipating significant treaties or resolutions.
Mark Montgomery, a retired Rear Admiral and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, remarked: “President Biden is playing a weak hand that just got weaker.” He noted that post-Trump’s return, Biden faces formidable competition not just from the political landscape but also from Xi Jinping’s expanding influence in Latin America—an arena where China’s investments present a serious challenge for U.S. engagement in the near future.
Preparing for Economic Policy Shifts
With Trump on the cusp of his second term, global leaders brace for a renewed confrontational stance from the U.S., primarily regarding economic policies and international trade. Derek Scissors, a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, highlighted the probability of Trump implementing heightened tariffs as part of a reinvigorated “America First” strategy. Scissors observed, “China and the EU should expect higher U.S. tariffs in 2025,” indicating that this approach could be leveraged during Trump’s negotiations.
This potential shift in tariffs threatens not only U.S.-China relations but could also have implications for traditional allies, who may once again find themselves facing elevated levies. During his first term, Trump instigated a trade war with China, imposing tariffs of up to 25% on steel and aluminum. His strategy led to reciprocal tariffs from China, escalating tensions, which saw Trump suggesting even higher tariffs on Chinese imports reaching up to 60% during a potential second term. However, the extent of such implementation remains uncertain.
Conclusion: The Future Under Trump
As President Biden concludes his final international tour, the global economic and diplomatic landscape stands at the brink of transformation, particularly with the return of Donald Trump as President. His engagements at the APEC and G-20 summits may well be viewed as final acts in a long-standing political career. However, they resonate more with the theme of managing transitions rather than creating enduring advancements.
The incoming U.S. administration is anticipated to adopt a noticeably more aggressive approach toward economic issues. As such, both allies and adversaries ready themselves for what promises to be a far more protectionist era in U.S. foreign policy under a Trump-led government.
