Warning Signs from Opposition Leaders

In the midst of the escalating Venezuelan political crisis, members of the opposition party are sounding the alarm over a potential increase in violence perpetrated by the Tren de Aragua gang. They claim that if Nicolás Maduro remains in power, the ramifications could extend far beyond Venezuela’s borders, threatening U.S. safety and stirring a massive migration crisis.

Despite widespread belief that Maduro lost the 2024 presidential election to opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia, Maduro was sworn in for a third six-year term, further polarizing an already divided nation.

In a direct challenge to the regime, prominent opposition leader María Corina Machado has called for citizens to take to the streets to demand the installation of González as the legitimate president. This rallying cry sets the stage for a potential confrontation with Maduro’s forces.

The Migration Crisis

In an exclusive interview with The Wall Street Journal, Machado warned of a catastrophic scenario should Maduro’s rule persist. She stated, “If Maduro remains, prepare yourself because we will see three, four, or five million Venezuelans crossing the border.” This stark prediction highlights the urgency of resolving the political crisis in Venezuela.

Machado further emphasized the link between Venezuelan stability and U.S. safety, explaining, “We also are desperate to solve the migration problem in our region. We want those Venezuelans to come back in billions and voluntarily.” For her, a return to normalcy in Venezuela is crucial to stem the tide of migration towards the United States.

Tren de Aragua: A Security Threat

As concerns over migration mount, the role of Tren de Aragua—an infamous criminal organization with ties to the Maduro regime—cannot be overlooked. Former Venezuelan military officer José Gustavo Arocha has warned that if Maduro remains in power, gang violence related to Tren de Aragua will escalate both in Venezuela and the U.S.

Describing the gang’s brutal methods, Arocha pointed out that Tren de Aragua engages in a range of criminal activities, from kidnapping and torture to robbery and even the takeover of entire apartment complexes. With the potential for such violence to spill into the U.S., the stakes are high not only for Venezuelans but for American citizens as well.

The Impact of Maduro’s Regime

Describing the political landscape of Venezuela, Arocha asserted that the Maduro regime is likely to use Tren de Aragua as a tool for coercion and manipulation. “Migration, weaponized with elements of the Tren de Aragua, will serve as leverage to seek the easing of economic sanctions and to gain legitimacy from the United States,” he explained. This situation suggests that Maduro may exploit the very vulnerabilities of his own citizens to achieve his ends.

According to Arocha, as economic conditions worsen and repression becomes more common, the migration crisis will deepen. “Repression, economic collapse, and chaos in Venezuela will continue to be cornerstones of Maduro’s state policy,” he asserted, implying that many migrants who are deported will find their way back due to established trafficking routes that take advantage of the porous southern U.S. border.

Potential Solutions

Security strategist Alberto Ray echoed these sentiments, stating that the current situation in Venezuela is “extremely explosive.” He warned that the longer Maduro remains in power, the stronger Tren de Aragua will become in the U.S. Ray emphasized that while the majority of Venezuelan migrants are honest, hardworking individuals, Maduro’s government has been “weaponizing” migration to create chaos in other nations.

“These are very few fractions of Venezuelans that were introduced inside those migration processes designed by the regime,” Ray noted, hinting at the possibility of organized crime infiltrating American society. He suggested that the repercussions of Maduro’s continued rule might include a greater presence of criminal gangs within the U.S. border.

Calls for Action from the U.S.

Echoing a sense of urgency, Ray urged both the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration to take a strong stance against Maduro, warning that a failure to act could exacerbate the problems in Venezuela and present a direct threat to U.S. safety.

“The next 72 hours are going to be critical,” he warned. “Maduro has nobody supporting him but some factions inside the armed forces, and he’s counting on those factions to support him and make him president.” He argued that these factions represent a small, desperate group clinging to power, while the vast majority of Venezuelans desire a return to democracy.