Potential U.S.-China Conflict Over Taiwan: A Legislative Insight

On Wednesday, House lawmakers were briefed about the grave implications of a potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan within the next two years. The increasing assertiveness of the Chinese government has raised alarms among U.S. officials, especially as China continues to encroach upon the territories of its regional allies.

The Current State of China’s Military Readiness

Recent analyses indicate that the Chinese defense industrial base is operating on what is described as a “wartime footing.” The country has significantly ramped up its military capabilities, boasting a shipbuilding capacity that is reportedly 230 times greater than that of the United States. Such capabilities render a potential invasion of Taiwan increasingly plausible.

According to U.S. military analysts, 2027 could be the pivotal year by which China might be fully prepared to launch a military invasion of Taiwan. Historically, the U.S. has maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding its willingness to come to Taiwan’s defense in such scenarios, a stance that adds to the complexities of the situation.

Simulations and War Games: The Outcomes

During a series of simulation exercises conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and presented to members of the House China Select Committee, a formidable alliance consisting of the U.S., Taiwan, and Japan succeeded in repelling a Chinese amphibious invasion. However, this victory came at a steep cost, with the exercise reporting over 10,000 total casualties. The U.S. forces alone witnessed losses of 10-20 warships, including two aircraft carriers, and sustained casualties exceeding 3,000 troops in the first three weeks of combat.

In contrast, the simulation projected severe losses for China as well, with 90% of its amphibious fleet and a notable portion of its major surface ships and aircraft being destroyed in the conflict.

Key Insights from the Briefing

Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Mich., the committee chairman, emphasized the importance of the war games in preparing for potential conflicts, stating, “In our tabletop exercise today, we walked through one simulation of what might happen in a worst-case scenario conflict with China.” He reiterated the necessity for a strong bipartisan approach to ensure America is ready to act as the “arsenal of democracy” if required.

The report highlighted four critical points for U.S. strategy: 1) Taiwan must decisively “hold the line” against any ground invasion, 2) there is no gradual escalation plan akin to the “Ukraine” model—decisive action is imperative, 3) military operations would predominantly have to originate from Japan, and 4) the U.S. needs an immediate increase in its supply of anti-ship missiles.

The Regional Dynamics and Challenges

The briefing identified a chilling reality: While China essentially dictates the timing of its potential “D-Day,” Taiwan and its allies must be perpetually prepared for an invasion that could happen at any moment. The war games operated under the assumption that the invasion could occur as early as 2026.

The simulations also took into account the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy under a potential future Trump presidency. Although former President Trump has previously suggested that Taiwan should bear some financial responsibility for U.S. defensive aid, the committee’s simulations took for granted the assumption that the U.S. would lend assistance regardless of the political landscape.

Japan’s Role and the South Korean Limitation

Japan emerged as a key ally for the U.S. and Taiwan during the simulations, especially considering South Korea’s reluctance to permit U.S. military actions from its soil. Matthew Cancian, a researcher at the Naval War College, pointed out that while South Korea’s support would be beneficial, U.S. military forces would likely need to relocate some of their squadrons stationed there to bolster efforts in Taiwan.

However, this geostrategic alignment is not without its drawbacks; North Korea might exploit the tensions to launch an invasion of South Korea, drawing attention away from the U.S.-Taiwan defense efforts, particularly since North Korea has been observed gaining insights from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Logistical Challenges and Military Imperatives

Unlike U.S. aid to Ukraine, which can traverse NATO territory, supplying weapons to Taiwan poses unique challenges. Any support would require the deployment of U.S. troops due to the threat posed by Chinese missiles aimed at disrupting supply lines. As Cancian noted, “U.S. forces would have to be directly involved; there’s no way to ensure the defense of Taiwan while simultaneously keeping U.S. forces out of harm’s way.” He elaborated that any delay in U.S. intervention could be catastrophic, as China would solidify its control within two weeks of an invasion.

In terms of military strategy, Chinese land attack and anti-ship missiles represent the most significant threats. To counter this, the war games stressed the urgent need for Taiwan to enhance its arsenal, particularly through the acquisition of Harpoons and coastal defense cruise missiles. The U.S., too, must urgently increase its supply of key munitions, as current stockpiles of anti-ship missiles are considered woefully inadequate, likely to deplete within a week in a direct conflict with China.

Future Considerations and Strategic Imperatives

A successful defense of Taiwan is vital to preserve regional stability, as a loss there could destabilize the Chinese Communist Party’s standing domestically. The war games also called for Taiwan to adjust its defense budget to prioritize smaller, more survivable naval vessels rather than large ships easily targeted by Chinese forces. The overall focus for the U.S. must include arming Taiwan with flexible, low-cost defense options.

Representative Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., encapsulated the sentiment: “We need to make them fire their exquisite stuff at our non-exquisite stuff. They’re going to out-produce us… we need to wake up.” He underscored the importance of maintaining a defensive posture that avoids escalating the conflict into an all-out war with a nuclear power and cautioned against any offensive moves toward the Chinese mainland.

Concluding Thoughts

The scenario outlined presents a landscape fraught with uncertainty. While Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, believes that the U.S. can make it exceedingly difficult for China to launch a cross-strait invasion, the Pentagon is pivoting its focus to the Indo-Pacific, which it now considers the most complex theater in global military strategy.

The Chinese Communist Party maintains a policy of potential invasion contingent on Taiwan making a move toward independence or the involvement of a third party in the dispute. As China aggressively extends its influence over U.S. allies, including Japan and the Philippines, the stakes for U.S. intervention in Taiwan have never been higher.

As geopolitical tensions continue to rise, the imperative for strengthened U.S.-Japan relations, bolstered military readiness, and a comprehensive strategy to support Taiwan remains urgent. The U.S. and its allies must prepare for a complex future shaped by an increasingly assertive China.