Bolsonaro Eyes Trump’s Victory as a Beacon of Hope for His Political Future
Donald Trump’s recent presidential election victory has reignited aspirations for Brazil’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro. Currently, Bolsonaro faces a political exile of sorts, prohibited from running for public office until 2030 due to a ruling by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. Known as the “Trump of the Tropics,” Bolsonaro’s political ambitions are hindered by accusations of power abuse and the propagation of unfounded claims regarding Brazil’s electronic voting system.
A Hopeful Glimpse
Despite the crippling electoral ban, Bolsonaro and his inner circle are actively seeking legal avenues to overturn the court’s decision. A significant portion of their optimism stems from Trump’s return to the White House. Bolsonaro is betting that a favorable U.S. administration could exert diplomatic pressure on Brazil’s leftist government, helmed by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, potentially paving the way for Bolsonaro’s anticipated 2026 presidential ambitions.
“Trump’s victory isn’t just positive for democracy in Brazil and globally—it also promotes peace on the world stage,” asserted Bolsonaro’s son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, in a recent interview with Fox News Digital. He noted that President Lula had previously criticized Trump’s potential reelection, even insinuating that his return represented “another form of Nazism.” However, with Trump’s victory, Lula appeared to soften his stance, congratulating the president-elect and attempting to mitigate earlier controversial statements.
Counter-Reactions from Lula’s Inner Circle
Despite Lula’s conciliatory overtures, several members of his political faction remain highly critical of Trump and his prospective administration. Influential figures such as Workers’ Party leader Gleisi Hoffmann, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, and Agriculture Minister Paulo Teixeira have voiced their dissent, highlighting the ideological rift within Brazilian politics as it grapples with shifting global dynamics.
Pressure Points for Lula’s Government
Bolsonaro expresses confidence that Trump’s win could dramatically alter the political landscape in Brazil. “Lula and his team know they cannot control Trump and are likely to align even more closely with China in an effort to undermine U.S.–Brazil ties,” he remarked. “Essential domestic issues like healthcare, education, security, and sanitation are being ignored, mirroring the disconnect that led to the Democratic Party’s recent struggles in the U.S.—it’s almost a déjà vu for Brazil,” Bolsonaro elaborated.
Economic Tensions: Trump, Tariffs, and BRICS
As Brazil reassesses its position in the global market, Lula and the BRICS nations—Russia, India, China, and South Africa—have been investigating methods to undermine the U.S. dollar’s global hegemony. Bolsonaro, however, cautions that such maneuvers could be detrimental. “Trump made it clear he would impose a 100% tariff on the exports of nations supporting the BRICS agenda,” he noted. “During my presidency, this was never an issue, irrespective of whether Trump or Biden was in charge.”
Bolsonaro’s warning underscores a potential economic backlash that could ensue from Lula’s alignment with BRICS. He pointed out that numerous Brazilian entrepreneurs with established U.S. trade relationships are significant contributors to Lula’s campaigns. “While some of them ideologically align with Lula, their financial success is rooted in pragmatism,” he concluded.
Free Speech as a Catalyst for Bolsonaro’s Return
Another aspect that unites Bolsonaro and Trump is their commitment to free speech. The former president frequently criticizes Brazil’s judiciary, particularly targeting Supreme Federal Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes for perceived infringements on civil liberties. In 2022, de Moraes temporarily banned the messaging app Telegram and mandated social media platforms like X (formerly Twitter) to restrict accounts accused of disseminating misinformation. These actions catalyzed tensions, especially after Elon Musk’s public condemnation of de Moraes, leading to a brief suspension of X’s operations in Brazil.
Bolsonaro interprets Musk’s defense of free speech as a significant ideological boost as he positions himself for a potential political comeback. Polls indicate that his popularity is on the rise once more; according to a May 2024 survey, he garnered 39% support in a hypothetical matchup against Lula, who achieved 47%. Although these numbers are theoretical due to Bolsonaro’s current ineligibility, many analysts are sensing a resurgence on the horizon for the former president.
Potential Shifts in U.S.–Brazil Relations
During Bolsonaro’s term, the Biden administration adopted a cautious approach toward him, yet relations between Bolsonaro and Republican members of Congress remained robust. A case in point was Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar’s proposal to deny visas to Brazilian Supreme Court members accused of abusing their authority—a measure that faced opposition but could be reconsidered under a Republican majority.
Analysts like Sandra Bronzina have stated, “The return of Trump to the White House is a significant setback for Lula’s government. Lula’s economic policies have been disastrous, leading to plummeting popularity. Just as Americans began missing Trump amid economic challenges, many Brazilians are starting to reminisce about the Bolsonaro era.”
Conclusion: An Uncertain Yet Optimistic Horizon
As Bolsonaro navigates a complicated political landscape fraught with uncertainty, his gaze remains firmly fixed on a possible return to power. Trump’s election victory represents not just a personal hope for Bolsonaro, but a potential shift in the dynamics of U.S.–Brazil relations, economic policies, and even social freedom. Despite his current challenges, the former president’s resilience suggests that the political narrative is far from over. As Brazil heads toward its next elections, the potential for a Bolsonaro resurgence remains a tantalizing prospect for his supporters and a significant concern for Lula’s administration.
