Funding the Government

As senators await the official text of the bill, the proposed measure is expected to provide funding through late January for several critical departments, including the Agriculture Department—responsible for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)—the Veterans Affairs Department, and military construction projects. Furthermore, the bill seeks to allocate funding through September 30, 2026, for Congress.

Awaiting Bill Text and Potential Challenges

Anticipation is building as lawmakers expect the bill text to be released tonight or tomorrow morning. Initial reports suggest that the proposal is strictly a spending bill with no provisions for renewing Obamacare subsidies, a decision some view as a missed opportunity.

The success of the forthcoming test vote hinges on garnering 60 votes. This means that bipartisan support from Democratic senators will be crucial to overcoming a filibuster. Observers are encouraged to watch for the following Democratic senators who may contribute to breaking the filibuster:

• Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
• Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H.
• Jack Reed, D-R.I.
• Jon Ossoff, D-Ga.
• John Fetterman, D-Pa.
• Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev.
• Maggie Hassan, D-N.H.
• Gary Peters, D-Mo.
• Angus King, I-Maine
• Patty Murray, D-Wash. (noted for her vital role in the Senate Appropriations Committee)

This coalition, while viable, remains delicate and could easily collapse under pressure.

Paving the Way for a Government Re-Opening

If the Senate successfully breaks the filibuster, it is anticipated that lawmakers will promptly vote to re-open the government. A vote could potentially occur as soon as Sunday night if an agreement on timing can be reached among the senators.

However, the Senate’s procedural rules grant substantial debate time following a filibuster break. Progressive senators, feeling sidelined regarding health care issues, may attempt to prolong the legislative process. This could push the final vote on the bill back to Tuesday or later.

In contrast, Democrats’ opposition might directly affect the issuance of SNAP benefits, which could prompt them to consider an expedited legislative process to avoid further delays.

The House’s Role in the Legislative Process

The House of Representatives is currently on a 48-hour notice to return. However, it is expected that the House may not reconvene until midweek, synchronizing with the Senate’s timeline to facilitate a government re-opening. There is optimism that the House could be called back sooner if necessary.

The House’s response to the Senate’s pending legislation remains uncertain. Nonetheless, many analysts find it difficult to believe that a majority of Republicans would reject such a deal. Additionally, moderate Democrats, including Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.), and Jared Golden (D-Maine), may also be swayed to support the bill if the GOP loses any votes. Golden was notably the only House Democrat to vote in favor of a previous interim spending bill on September 19, prior to his announced retirement.

Critical Questions and Political Implications

One pressing question looms over the process: will the House swear in Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva (D-Ariz.) before or after the vote? Failure to do so before a House vote could provoke significant backlash from Democrats.

With the potential swearing-in of Grijalva, the House would consist of 433 members, with 219 Republicans and 214 Democrats, pushing the GOP to carefully navigate their voting decisions to avoid losses that would necessitate Democratic support.

As the legislative process unfolds, internal conflicts may arise among Democrats concerning their support for breaking the filibuster, especially among those who prioritize preserving Obamacare subsidies. The aftermath of this vote could widen the rift between House and Senate Democrats, exposing fundamental differences in their approaches to governance.

Moreover, the risk remains that a faction of Senate Democrats may prioritize a swift resolution to the shutdown at the expense of broader party goals, such as securing provisions for health care funding despite the high political stakes involved.