Critical Juncture for Hamas

According to Joe Truzman, a senior research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Hamas is currently at a pivotal point concerning its control over Gaza. The group’s refusal to participate in a newly proposed aid distribution mechanism coordinated by the U.S. and Israel suggests that maintaining authority takes precedence over the well-being of the Palestinian people.

Threats Against Civilians

Despite a protracted blockade by Israel that has resulted in severe humanitarian struggles, Hamas recently issued threats to Palestinian civilians accepting food aid, warning that they would “pay the price” for their actions. Even as dire conditions unfold, many Palestinians are flocking to assistance sites established by the U.S.-Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), leading to chaotic scenes.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that troops fired warning shots at a distribution location to restore order following tumultuous scenes. The UN Human Rights Office confirmed injuries sustained during the upheaval, while the Hamas-run health ministry claimed one death and numerous injuries occurred.

Denial of Allegations

In response to the turmoil, GHF issued a statement denying any interrogation or detention of Palestinians receiving aid, dismissing claims of violence as propaganda from Hamas. Truzman noted that Hamas attempts to frame the aid process in a negative light to sustain its power, highlighting its previous control over aid distribution as a means to bolster loyalty and exert influence.

Humanitarian Efforts and Public Sentiment

Despite the difficult circumstances, GHF reported that around 8,000 food boxes were distributed, providing approximately 462,000 meals, with plans to expand their operations. In a remarkable shift, a Gazan citizen expressed frustration at Hamas’s incapacity to guarantee basic necessities, emphasizing the need for anyone to deliver aid amid the crisis.

As the combat continues, there is an increasing public demand for Hamas to cease hostilities, return hostages, and even vacate the Gaza Strip. Truzman pointed out that this transformation in public sentiment significantly undermines Hamas’s established image as the prevalent authority in the region.

Historical Context and Declining Popularity

Hamas has maintained control over Gaza since 2007, having ousted its main rival, Fatah, which is part of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Despite its long-standing power, the group’s popularity had already begun to decline prior to the conflict in 2023. Restrictions on border crossings and goods flow by Israel and Egypt have persisted for decades. Notably, leading up to the October attacks, the majority of the population did not attribute food shortages solely to sanctions, opting instead to blame the Hamas government coupled with rampant inflation.

Impact of External Aid on Governance

A report from the Wilson Center indicates a growing distrust in Hamas’s leadership, with support likely decreasing further in the aftermath of the 2023 conflict. Even imperfect external aid systems have the potential to illuminate the governance failures of Hamas, causing a shift in public opinion against the group. Truzman warned that if the new aid distribution framework proves to enhance living conditions more effectively than Hamas’s own efforts during wartime, it could further aggravate public dissatisfaction toward the organization.