Attendance and Absences: The New Political Math in Congress

For as long as the legislative process has been documented, Congress has often drawn comparisons to a school environment. In school, the first order of business is often taking attendance — but in the halls of Congress, this is a practice that has been largely overlooked. However, as we look ahead to the 119th Congress, attendance may become one of the most significant factors influencing legislative activity.

The Importance of Attendance in Congress

In years to come, particularly in daily operations, understanding who is present and who is missing will become a dramatic and pivotal aspect of life on Capitol Hill. The perpetual numbers game in Congress has always been a crucial element, and as the new session unfolds, it is set to take on new urgency.

The GOP Majority: A Delicate Balance

The upcoming sessions will showcase the narrow margins within which the Republican Party operates. Ramifications of these tight numbers can significantly impact legislative outcomes. President Trump and House Republicans are gearing up for ambitious initiatives for their 2025 legislative agenda. But with a slim GOP majority likely beginning at 219-215, the math gets precarious. Voting turnout and attendance will be critical determinants of success.

GOP Majority Dynamics

Every day in the House will hinge on various factors affecting attendance: illness, travel delays due to weather, personal commitments, or unexpected emergencies. A single missing vote can drastically alter the landscape of any given legislative decision. With one Republican “nay” potentially tipping the scales to 218-216, and two dissenting votes resulting in a deadlock, the stakes are high.

Come January 3, the start of the new Congress, the situation may evolve as members like Reps. Elise Stefanik and Michael Waltz prepare to relinquish their seats in order to join the Trump administration. This could shrink the Republican margin to 217-215, making attendance even more imperative if the party hopes to push through their legislative agenda without bipartisan support.

Implications of Special Elections

With the potential for several special elections to fill the vacancies left by departing members, the composition of Congress is wholly subject to change. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has already scheduled a special election for Matt Gaetz’s seat on April 1. However, the timing of special elections for Stefanik and Waltz may stretch into late spring or even summer, leaving Republicans operating with an even thinner margin between them and their legislative goals.

A Shifting Political Landscape

Notably, the special elections, typically dominated by “Republican” districts, can yield surprising outcomes. Lower voter turnout and opposition party enthusiasm in off-cycle elections have the potential to reshape expectations. Republicans may hold out hope to regain these seats, but there are no guarantees, especially as they adjust to their slim majority while facing potential dissent within their ranks.

Attendance: A Sudden Vulnerability

The political calculus surrounding attendance isn’t limited to one party. Democrats too have grappled with health concerns that may hinder their ability to mount a robust opposition. Mentalities switched with the political climate; Democratic leaders understand they need full attendance to effectively challenge GOP initiatives. The health of key figures, like Rep. David Scott and Rep. Raul Grijalva, could complicate these plans, especially given their past absence and ongoing health battles that might impact their voting records.

The Challenges of Active Participation

Every Congress experiences transitions, with illness and untimely deaths inevitably impacting attendance. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise’s recent battle with cancer exemplifies the personal toll these jobs can take, and how such challenges hinder legislative activities. The absence of just one member can open the door for opposition parties to exploit vulnerabilities in voting, particularly on contentious issues.

Conclusion: The New Attendance Guidelines

With a new Congress on the horizon, all eyes will turn to attendance, absences, and the unpredictable nature of each day’s legislative activities. Whether someone stands in favor or against a bill holds less weight than the universal need for their presence. As lawmakers brace for the upcoming battles, it’s essential to check the pulse on attendance — from the flight schedules to health reports — as a litmus test for legislative success. The attendance bells will ring, and the results may dictate the political outcomes of not just the 119th Congress but also shape the landscape for years to come.