Iraq’s Challenge: Disarming Iran-Aligned Militias Amid Regional Instability

As Iranian influence continues to wane in the Middle East, the Iraqi government is pushing for disarmament among various armed groups, including factions within the Iran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI). Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein has explicitly stated to Reuters that the presence of these armed groups operating outside government oversight is unacceptable. The effort to rein in these factions comes at a time when regional tensions are high, and the ripple effects of political shifts in neighboring countries are becoming increasingly relevant.

Government’s Call for Disarmament

“Many political leaders and parties have initiated discussions on this issue,” Hussein stated, expressing hope that leaders of armed groups would agree to lay down their arms and integrate into the state’s security apparatus or the officially recognized Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), which were originally formed to combat ISIS. The Iraqi government’s insistence on control reflects a growing concern about the implications of armed groups operating beyond state authority.

The Regional Context

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is shifting, with many observers expressing concern over a potential destabilization of Iraq. Recent developments—including the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, Hamas’s diminishing strength in Gaza, and Hezbollah’s waning influence in Lebanon—have led to fears that Iraq could face similar turmoil. Jonathan Schanzer, executive director at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, emphasized that the fall of Assad presents a crucial moment for the Iraqi government to counter Iranian-backed militias. “Right now, Iraqis are worried they might be next, and there’s widespread concern about the toxic and destabilizing effects of Iranian influence in the country,” Schanzer articulated.

Understanding the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI)

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq comprises various armed factions operating as part of the broader “Axis of Resistance” aligned with Iran. These groups have been a persistent challenge for the Iraqi government, particularly since the escalation of conflict in October 2023, when the IRI was implicated in an attack that killed three U.S. service members in Jordan. Their alignment with Iran has resulted in armed operations not only against ISIS but also against U.S.-led coalition forces in the region.

The Role and Structure of the Popular Mobilization Forces

Established in 2014 in response to a call from Shia cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were initially formed to help Iraqis combat the rise of ISIS. While the PMF has played a significant role in the fight against the Islamic State—largely supported by Iranian military advisers and resources—it now operates as an official arm of Iraq’s state security forces, reporting directly to the prime minister. This complicated their relationship with independent armed factions like those in the IRI.

Inna Rudolf, a researcher at King’s College London, explained the ongoing challenges of integrating these Iran-aligned factions into the broader state security framework. “The discussions are focused on how to manage these factions that have gained prominence since October 7 under the Islamic Resistance in Iraq label,” she said. Many of these groups have also established brigades formally recognized under the PMF, complicating any disarmament or integration efforts.

Challenges Ahead: Neutralizing Dissent and Reducing Risks

Rudolf further highlights the pressing need to neutralize these militias to prevent Iraq from being drawn into geopolitical conflicts that could destabilize the nation. “The key challenge is neutralizing these elements to minimize risks and prevent the PMF and the Iraqi state from being dragged into an untimely geopolitical escalation,” she cautioned.

Speculation of Military Actions and Iran’s Diminished Role

As the influence of Iran-aligned factions begins to dwindle post-October 7, speculation arises regarding possible military responses from Israel against Iranian-linked groups within Iraq. Analysts perceive Iraq’s current efforts to curtail the power of armed factions as indicative of Iran’s diminishing regional clout. Caroline Rose, a senior analyst at the New Lines Institute, remarked, “The ongoing security sector reform targeting the Popular Mobilization Forces highlights Iran’s weakened role in Iraq. This moment provides moderate forces and the U.S. with an opportunity to build momentum for change.”

A Pivotal Moment for Iraq

Looking ahead, Iraq finds itself at a critical juncture. Scheduled elections in the fall present a unique opportunity for the government to assert control over armed factions while engaging in a bilateral security framework with the U.S. This framework includes negotiations surrounding the continued presence of approximately 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq as part of Operation Inherent Resolve, aimed at combating remnants of ISIS.

However, experts caution that Iraq must demonstrate its capability to rein in rogue militias. The failure to do so could jeopardize security collaboration with the U.S., especially in the context of potential political shifts and attitudes under a future Trump administration.

Conclusion: A Shift in Power Dynamics

The Iraqi government’s initiatives to rein in armed factions signify a notable shift in the region’s power dynamics. As they work to assert control, there lies an opportunity for the government to bolster its legitimacy and move towards greater stability. Regional observers and stakeholders are closely monitoring these developments, as Iraq navigates a complex landscape marked by both internal challenges and evolving geopolitical influences.