Unsettled Governments and Shifting Politics

With the prospect of Donald Trump re-entering the White House in the wake of the 2024 elections, concerns are brewing among various U.S. adversaries in Latin America. Countries governed by left-leaning political regimes and those historically resistant to American influence are notably apprehensive about how a shift in U.S. foreign policy might threaten their national interests. Recent statements from political leaders in these countries indicate a growing unease regarding potential changes to trade dynamics, immigration policies, and regional cooperation.

Just this past week, Trump’s hardline rhetoric on tariffs prompted Mexico’s socialist President, Claudia Sheinbaum, to issue a conciliatory gesture to the incoming administration, illuminating the potential ramifications of his anticipated re-election.

Authority Under Threat: A Shift in Strategy

Joseph Humire, Executive Director of the Center for a Secure Free Society, outlined to Fox News Digital that adversarial regimes in the region—including **Cuba**, **Venezuela**, **Nicaragua**, and **Bolivia**—are expected to reevaluate their strategies as the Trump administration looms. “These authoritarian states often align with nations like Russia, China, and Iran. They have historically destabilized neighbors and facilitated transnational crime and terrorism,” Humire said. “However, under a Trump administration, these adversaries are likely to hesitate before showing provocativeness in Latin America. They previously experienced consequences from such actions.”

Trump’s Foreign Policy Foundations Return

Humire, the author of *“The Foreign Policy Foundations of Trumpism,”* emphasized that Trump’s foreign policy, which prioritizes American sovereignty and burden-sharing, suggests a return to long-standing U.S. principles in international relations. “At its core, ‘America First’ calls for a robust domestic foundation to enable effective global influence,” he elaborated.

Conservative Resurgence in Latin America

Trump’s potential comeback has already sparked a wave of conservative optimism across the continent. Humire pointed out the recent meeting between Argentinian President Javier Milei and Trump, noting, “Milei is a symbol of a rising tide of conservative, libertarian, and right-wing leadership in Latin America. This trend is poised to influence upcoming electoral outcomes in Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, and Peru.”

Drawing parallels with like-minded leaders such as Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro, Humire conveyed that this shift towards policies aligned with U.S. interests could reshape the political landscape in the region.

Regional Economies on Edge

Countries like Mexico, with strong economic ties to the U.S. and a shared border, are particularly anxious as President Sheinbaum’s administration grapples with threats of stricter U.S. immigration controls and the specter of renegotiated trade agreements that could adversely affect Mexico’s economy.

Furthermore, Colombia finds itself on shaky ground with concerns surrounding a potential rollback of U.S. drug policy and security cooperation under a Trump administration. President Gustavo Petro has warned that an intensified U.S. approach could compromise Colombia’s peace process and anti-drug efforts.

Isolated Regimes Brace for U.S. Pressure

Anti-American regimes such as **Cuba**, **Nicaragua**, and **Venezuela**, often referred to as the “troika of tyranny,” are anticipating increased sanctions and diplomatic scrutiny in light of Trump’s administration. The potential appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State suggests an impending hardline U.S. strategy that could further disenfranchise these regimes.

Chilean economist Axel Kaiser, a Senior Fellow at the Archbridge Institute, believes Rubio’s involvement could reshape U.S.-Latin America relations significantly. “Rubio understands the socialist challenge in the region, paving the way for increased pressure on leftist authoritarian governments,” he remarked. He also noted that a proactive U.S. role under Trump could serve to bolster democratic forces in Venezuela and beyond.

Presidential Partnerships

Argentina’s new leadership under President Javier Milei aims to foster stronger ties with the U.S., seeking American backing for additional loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and inviting foreign investments to stabilize the Argentine economy and progress towards capitalist reforms.

Likewise, Brazil, under its right-leaning administration, appears poised to collaborate with the U.S. on trade and regional security matters. Potential investments from the U.S. in infrastructure and energy sectors may serve to further solidify cooperative relations between the two nations.

A Cautious Optimism Amidst Challenges

In Colombia, Senator Paola Holguin, a member of the conservative Centro Democrático party, conveyed a blend of optimism and caution regarding Trump’s administration. “His re-election signifies the closing chapter on a lenient policy toward authoritarian regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia,” Holguin said, highlighting the importance of remaining vigilant in light of shifting geopolitical dynamics.

As preparations continue for the U.S. elections, Latin America watches closely, balancing apprehension about the potential ramifications of Trump’s return with the opportunities it could bring for conservative leaders and partnerships committed to U.S. ideals.